Monday, September 08, 2008

Chasing the Odds


MLB may be a month away from its postseason, but for Nascar the Chase is beginning this weekend. That’s why it seems like the perfect time to compare each driver’s chances for brining home a championship with their major baseball counterpart.


Kyle Busch & LA Angels are the Heavy Favorites
The Angels will be the first to clinch a playoff birth easily running away with the weaker AL West crown. Once they get to the playoffs, the Angels will have to go up against tougher teams like possibly the Red Sox (if the playoffs started today) in the first round. They got bounced by Boston last year, but have upgraded their offense with the additions of Torii Hunter in center and Mark Teixiera at first. A World Series ring is not guaranteed, nonetheless they look to be a heavy favorite going into October.

Kyle Busch is entering the Chase with the most wins this season (8) and the most top 10s (19). Under the old system, he’d be running away with the Championship, but with the new system and the reorganization of the standings, he’s just 30 points ahead of Carl Edwards and 50 in front of Johnson. If he continues to run like he has over the last 26 races, he could easily pick up his first Cup Series title.


Carl Edwards & Chicago Cubs are the Strong Contenders
Before their most recent slide, the Cubs were considered a foregone conclusion for at least making their first World Series appearance since 1945. Even with the losing streak, they still have the best record in the National League and with an eight game cushion over the Phillies in the Wild Card; they practically have their ticket to the playoffs punched.

Carl Edwards comes into the Chase riding high, winning three of the last six events and he’s second only to Kyle Busch in wins and top 10s this season. It will definitely be a battle with Busch and Johnson for the Cup crown; however, if Edwards and his team can continue their momentum they have a strong chance at brining Jack Roush his first title since 2004.


Jimmie Johnson & Boston Red Sox are the Reigning Champs
The Boston Red Sox are the reigning World Series champions. Even with the loss of Manny Ramirez, they’ve been able to pick up some valuable pieces (Mark Kotsay and Jason Bay) to help them start to roll off some wins. With the Rays beginning to fumble, the Sox stand just a game and a half out of first in the AL East and look poised to make another impressive post-season run.

Jimmie Johnson is not just the reigning Nascar Cup Series Champion; he’s riding a two year streak. He started the season off slow, but has managed to win the last two races vaulting him from a tie with Earnhardt, Jr., Burton, Hamlin and Bowyer to sole position of the third spot.


Dale Earnhardt, Jr. & Milwaukee Brewers are the Handsome Challengers
The Brewers have mortgaged the farm to make a run at their first playoff spot since 1982. (Note: I was still a year away from existence) They’ve added CC Sabathia who has been practically perfect for them, while extracting offense from their youthful players like Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Although they stand just four games ahead of the Phillies for the Wild Card, the Brew Crew are in a good position to continue playing on October 1st. But a World Series seems doubtful.

Earnhardt, Jr. has managed just one race win this season, however his consistency has allowed him to stay in the top five in points almost all season. He’s not likely to set the world on fire, but he is likely to keep in touch with the leaders for the majority of the Chase. I just don’t see him holding the Tiffany trophy at Homestead.


Jeff Burton & The Rays are the Sentimental Favorites
While they may limp to it, the Rays seem on the brink of making their first playoff appearance in franchise history. Often overlooked, they’re young pitching could carry them deep into the playoffs.

Burton isn’t your odds on favorite to win the Chase, but his cool head and superior driving abilities make him a dark horse to win his first ever championship.


Denny Hamlin & LA Dodgers are the Hollywood Hot Shots
The Dodgers have fought back after dropping eight straight games by winning eight straight, including a sweep of their closest rival the Arizona Diamondbacks. A game and a half in front of the D’Backs in the West, the battle is far from over. Even if they do make the playoffs, they’ll likely suffer an early exit.

Hamlin has won one race this year and could add onto his win total at one of the remaining 10 tracks. That would seem to be the highlight of the Chase, because he’s not likely to factor into Championship.


Clint Bowyer & Arizona Diamondbacks are the Worthy Adversaries
The Diamondbacks came out of the gate strong winning 19 of their first 27 games. However, as the season has progressed, their one-two punch of Brandon Webb and Dan Haren has begun to falter. With their slumping pitching came losses, including their recent three game slide to the Dodgers, sending them a game and half behind LA

Clint Bowyer surprised everyone last season, coming out of the gate with a win at New Hampshire. 2008 brought him his second career win, but most likely it will not include his first career Cup title.


Tony Stewart & Chicago White Sox are the Rowdy Rumblers
The White Sox have had opportunities but have been unable to put distance between themselves and the Twins in the AL Central. And with the unexpected injury to slugger Carlos Quentin, their chances of a 2005 repeat seem doubtful.

2005 gave Tony Stewart his second Cup Series championship, but 2008 has been anything but magical. Maybe it’s his departure from Gibbs and the stress of building his own Cup team for 2009, but Tony hasn’t been Tony. His chances of winning the Chase look to be barely higher than his win total so far this season (0).
Greg Biffle & New York Mets are Looking for Redemption
2007 was very disappointing for the Mets and not just because they blew a huge lead with 17 games to go, although that certainly was apart of it. After a slow start and a manager change, the Mets have rebounded and find themselves a game and a half in front of the Phillies. With their recent surge they are hoping to get right back into the playoffs and step over the Phillies who roared in to take their 2007 NL East crown.

In 2005, Greg Biffle made his mark finish second in points behind Tony Stewart. But in 2006 and 2007 Biffle fumbled, unable to make the Chase he finished 13th and 14th respectively. This year he’s hoping to prove that 2005 was not just a fluke.


Matt Kenseth & Minnesota Twins are the Quiet Thunder
They may not be as flashy as other teams in the their division (Tigers) or slug homeruns like its little league (White Sox) but the Twins have managed to surprise just about everyone by continually staying in the playoff hunt, even without ace Johan Santana who they traded to the Mets in the off season.

Kenseth has a Cup Championship (2003) but he’s seemingly always overlooked. Maybe its his driving style or his quiet demeanor, but you should never count him out because he enjoys being an after thought.


Kevin Harvick & St. Louis Cardinals are On Edge
They are not out of playoff contention by any means, but with the season winding down and a five game deficit to the Brewers in the Wild Card they certainly are not guaranteed anything.

Harvick is largely in the Chase because of his ability to complete laps (97.5%). Standing 80 points behind Kyle Busch with 10 races to go, he’s certainly not on the outside looking in, but it would take a couple of wins and a lot of top 10 finishes to get his name on the Cup.

Jeff Gordon & New York Yankees are the Past Champions
With every passing day, it’s looking more and more likely that the Yankees will be missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993, making September 21st the true final game at Yankee Stadium.

With the season he’s had, Jeff Gordon is lucky to just make the Chase. While it seems odd to count a four time Cup winner out, it’s just not his year.



(Photos: Getty Images for Nascar)

No comments: